← Damiana Data models·Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists (used for informational, educational and research purposes)
Model · every version of the record

Six ways to show the space around what we know

One quantity, drawn six ways: how much the economy grew in a given quarter, as estimated by each of the 244 vintages that have published it. Drag a model to turn it. “Flat view” swings the camera to the angle where values read without perspective, because 3D is for shape and flat is for numbers.

Nothing here is a model’s error bar. The spread is what the official record has actually said about the same quarter, at different times.

drag to turn

Uncertainty cone

ESTIMATED

How far a quarter’s growth estimate can still move as it ages. The centre line is the average distance from that quarter’s own first print; the funnel is the spread across every quarter. It narrows, and it never closes.

along
age of the estimate, in quarters since it was first published
up
average distance from the first print, percentage points
radius
one standard deviation of that distance across quarters (faint shell: two)
declared
the round cross-section is form only; only the radius carries data

drag to turn

Density fog

ESTIMATED

How far each published version of history sat from what the record says today. Every line is one vintage. Where the fog closes on the centre the vintages agreed; where it opens, the same quarter was being read differently depending on when you looked.

along
quarter, 1965 onwards
up
distance from today’s reading, percentage points
depth
when the vintage was published: earlier half (green fog and line), later half (light fog, amber line)
declared
every second quarter and every fourth vintage is drawn, so the page stays light

drag to turn

Scatter with a reference plane

ESTIMATED vs CONFIRMED

Each point is one quarter: what was first published, against what the record says today. On the amber plane the number never changed. Above it the quarter was revised up; below it, down.

across
growth as first published, percent
up
growth as the record reads today, same scale
depth
era the quarter falls in
plane
first print = today’s reading

drag to turn

Stacked ridges

ESTIMATED

The shape of the revisions, one ridge per era. Each ridge is how often a quarter was revised by a given amount. A narrow ridge means the first print usually stood; a wide one means it often did not.

along
revision: today’s reading minus the first print, percentage points
up
how often, each ridge scaled to its own peak
depth
era (brightest: the era whose revisions spread widest)
gaps
built from the quarters in each era with at least eight published estimates

drag to turn

Bar city

ESTIMATED

How much of a quarter’s revision is still ahead of it. Each bar is the average further move after the estimate has been on the books for a year, five years, twenty.

across
how long the estimate has been published
depth
era the quarter falls in
height
further revision still to come, percentage points (green up, red down); outline: the same distance ignoring direction
verdict

drag to turn

Terrain with contour lines

ESTIMATED

The whole record as a landscape. Height is not the growth itself but how far each vintage sat from what the record says today: the plain is where the vintages agreed, and the hollows are where the same quarter was read differently depending on when you looked. Holes are quarters a vintage could not yet know about.

across
quarter being measured
depth
vintage doing the measuring
up
distance from today’s reading, percentage points
contours
the heavier lines are whole percentage points; sea level is today