The Fed raised rates. Here's what the bond market did.

What the video says

1. The Fed raised rates. Did it get pricier for the U.S. to borrow?

   For 2‑year loans, yes. 30‑year loans barely moved.

2. First, the yield curve.

   It's the interest rate on U.S. Treasury debt, from one month to thirty years, drawn as one line. Short loans in front, long loans behind.

3. The decision: up 0.25 percentage points, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.

   Announced at 2:00 p.m. EDT. The vote was 12–0.

4. The day before, and the day of.

   The 2‑year yield: 4.67% to 4.74%.

   Treasury records these yields at about 3:30 p.m., after the announcement.

5. The space between the lines is one day of change.

   Biggest at the 2‑year: +0.07 percentage points, bigger than on 220 of the previous 249 trading days.

   The 10‑year moved +0.01 percentage points. The 30‑year: −0.01 percentage points.

6. The next day, Sep 17, 2026.

   The 2‑year yield: 4.67%, back where it was the day before the decision.

   The 10‑year, over the same two days: −0.06 percentage points.

7. Short-term yields rose more than long-term ones.

   The curve got flatter: the gap between the 10‑year and 2‑year went from +0.33 percentage points to +0.27 percentage points.

8. One day can't tell you why.

   A single day's change can include other news, not just the decision. Whether traders expected the hike isn't tested here: the 1‑month bill already yielded 3.93% the day before, inside the new range. Cause: MISSING. Expectations: MISSING.

9. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, FOMC statement. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates.

   Not investment advice.

Evidence behind it

• The Fed's decisionCONFIRMED
• Treasury yieldsCONFIRMED
• Why yields movedMISSING
• What markets expectedMISSING

Marks open only as wide as each input’s evidence class allows. See Method.