The economy, then and now

What the video says

1. The GDP report you heard on the news wasn't the final word.

   Since 1965, today's numbers tell a different story about 53 of 244 quarters.

2. Give every quarter since 1965 one simple label.

   Was growth above its 10-year average? Was inflation? Growth is real GDP over the past year. Inflation is the GDP price index over the past year, not the consumer price index.

3. Then label each quarter twice.

   Once with the numbers as first published. Once with the numbers as they read today.

4. Here are the 53 quarters that changed label.

   That's 21.7%: 29 on growth, 21 on inflation, 3 on both.

5. Q3 2008: first published, inflation ran above its average.

   First published: 2.7% against 2.4%. Today: 2.1% against 2.3%.

   Growth was below average both times.

6. Q1 2019: first published, growth ran well above its average.

   First published: 3.2% against 1.9%. Today: 1.9% against 2.0%.

   Both examples were picked after the results were in.

7. Recession quarters mostly kept their label.

   4 of 36 changed.

   Recession dates from the National Bureau of Economic Research.

8. The newest quarter, Q2 2026, reads slower growth, hotter inflation.

   So far it has been published once.

9. 12 of the 53 changes sat within 0.25 percentage points of the average.

   Labels: ESTIMATED, from one fixed rule. Why the numbers were revised: MISSING.

10. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists. National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.

    Real output and its price index as published in each vintage; real GNP in early vintages. For educational use. Not investment advice.

Evidence behind it

• Published GDP and pricesCONFIRMED
• Regime labelsESTIMATED
• Why numbers were revisedMISSING

Marks open only as wide as each input’s evidence class allows. See Method.