The economy you lived through

What the video says

1. The GDP report you heard on the news wasn't the final word.

   Since 1965, today's numbers tell a different story about 53 of 244 quarters.

2. Every quarter since 1965, as it was first measured.

   From Q3 1965 to Q2 2026.

3. Give every quarter one simple label.

   Was growth above its 10-year average? Was inflation? Growth is real GDP over the past year. Inflation is the GDP price index over the past year, not the consumer price index.

4. The Philadelphia Fed keeps every version of the data.

   244 vintages, from Q4 1965 to Q3 2026.

5. Then label each quarter twice.

   Once with the numbers as first published. Once with the numbers as they read today.

6. If the first numbers were close enough, the two rows would agree.

7. Here are the quarters that changed label.

   53 of 244, or 21.7%.

   29 changed on growth, 21 on inflation, 3 on both.

8. Q3 2008: first published, inflation ran above its average.

   First published: 2.7% against 2.4%. Today: 2.1% against 2.3%.

   The examples here were picked after the results were in.

9. Q1 2019: first published, growth ran well above its average.

   First published: 3.2% against 1.9%. Today: 1.9% against 2.0%.

10. The changes are not spread evenly.

    The 1970s and 2000s changed most: 13 and 13 quarters.

    Between them they hold 49% of every change.

11. Recession quarters mostly kept their label.

    4 of 36 changed.

12. Does the finding survive a change of rule?

    Swap the 10-year average for 5 or 15 years. The share that changed stays between 18% and 22%.

13. The newest quarter, Q2 2026, reads slower growth, hotter inflation.

    So far it has been published once.

14. What this does not settle.

    12 of the changes sat within 0.25 percentage points of the average. Labels: ESTIMATED, from one fixed rule. Why the numbers were revised: MISSING.

15. Where this comes from.

    Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists, used for informational, educational and research purposes. National Bureau of Economic Research, US business cycle dates.

Evidence behind it

• Published GDP and pricesCONFIRMED
• Regime labelsESTIMATED
• Why numbers were revisedMISSING

Marks open only as wide as each input’s evidence class allows. See Method.